JenniferMurphy
Wellknown Member
 Joined
 Jul 23, 2011
 Messages
 1,338
 Office Version

 365
 2016
 2007
 Platform

 Windows
This is really a statistics question. If this is inappropriate, let me know. I've tried getting help in a couple of statistics forums, but I always get better answers here and I know Excel is often used for statistical calculations.
I am interested in comparing the "tally errors" is different "win streaks" in a random event, like a game, with a given probability of a win. The table shows results for win streaks of various lengths (Row 5). Columns DG contain data for these 4 streak lengths over 4,000 games with an overall winning % (Wins/Games) of 60%.
Col H shows the formulas used for the calculations.
<tbody>
</tbody>
Row 6 shows the expected probability for each streak length. Row 7 shows the expected tally for each streak length. Row 8 shows the actual tallies. Row 9 shows the difference in these percentages and Row 10 shows the percentage error.
My question is this: Are the values in Row 10 the best measures of how closely the actual tallies (Row 8) are to the expected tallies (Row 7)? If there is a better measure, I would appreciate some help understanding what it is and how to calculate it. I am looking for a measure that will allow me to rank the various tallies according to the error from the expected.
I hope I explained that adequately.
I am interested in comparing the "tally errors" is different "win streaks" in a random event, like a game, with a given probability of a win. The table shows results for win streaks of various lengths (Row 5). Columns DG contain data for these 4 streak lengths over 4,000 games with an overall winning % (Wins/Games) of 60%.
Col H shows the formulas used for the calculations.
R/C  C  D  E  F  G  H 
3  #Games  4000  4000  4000  4000  D3: 4000 
4  Win %  60.00%  60.00%  60.00%  60.00%  D4: 0.6 
5  Streak Length  1  2  3  4  D5: 1 
6  Exp Streak %  24.00%  14.40%  8.64%  5.18%  D6: =(D4^D5)*(1D4) 
7  Expected Tally  384.00  230.40  138.24  82.94  D7: =D6*D3*(1D4) 
8  Actual Tally  390  227  141  81  D8: 390 
9  Error (ActExp)  6.00  3.40  2.76  1.94  D9: =D8D7 
10  Error %  1.54%  1.50%  1.96%  2.40%  D10: =D9/D8 
<tbody>
</tbody>
Row 6 shows the expected probability for each streak length. Row 7 shows the expected tally for each streak length. Row 8 shows the actual tallies. Row 9 shows the difference in these percentages and Row 10 shows the percentage error.
My question is this: Are the values in Row 10 the best measures of how closely the actual tallies (Row 8) are to the expected tallies (Row 7)? If there is a better measure, I would appreciate some help understanding what it is and how to calculate it. I am looking for a measure that will allow me to rank the various tallies according to the error from the expected.
I hope I explained that adequately.