I've run 3 monte carlo simulations using Crystal Ball for a product in development. Each of the 3 simulations represents a different patient group that could potentially use this product.
Typically, I would run the results of these 3 simulations (mutually exclusive of each other) through yet another simulation (kind of like a simulation of the entire portfolio for this product).
Here is the atypical situation. Instead of running this last simulation of the 3 together, I'm going to add together the results for the best case revenues for the 3 simulations, the 3 base cases, and the 3 worst case revenues. What this 'roll-up' essentially does is make the best case extremely high and the worst case extremely low. It's really NOT a realistic scenario; it's what I call the Perfect Storm scenario. If you've seen the movie or read the book, you'll know what I mean.
My question is: is there a technical term for what I've done with the 3 scenarios? I'm sure there is a statistician out there who can tell me what to call my 'perfect storm' scenario. I need to put in on a slide for presentation purposes. Thanks!
Typically, I would run the results of these 3 simulations (mutually exclusive of each other) through yet another simulation (kind of like a simulation of the entire portfolio for this product).
Here is the atypical situation. Instead of running this last simulation of the 3 together, I'm going to add together the results for the best case revenues for the 3 simulations, the 3 base cases, and the 3 worst case revenues. What this 'roll-up' essentially does is make the best case extremely high and the worst case extremely low. It's really NOT a realistic scenario; it's what I call the Perfect Storm scenario. If you've seen the movie or read the book, you'll know what I mean.
My question is: is there a technical term for what I've done with the 3 scenarios? I'm sure there is a statistician out there who can tell me what to call my 'perfect storm' scenario. I need to put in on a slide for presentation purposes. Thanks!
