Forecasting Curve Distribution


New Member
Jun 27, 2018

I am working on a forecasting model and have run into some trouble when trying to extend the X-Axis of a 12-month Curve Distribution to a longer time frame. Given a distribution of 12 percentages (one for each month), how can I spread the 12 months or periods to say 18 months while maintaining the integrity of the curve.


Distribution Amount$1,000,000
Known Curve123456789101112
Bell Curve1.00%3.00%6.00%8.00%12.00%20.00%20.00%12.00%8.00%6.00%3.00%1.00%
Spend Pattern 10,000 30,000 60,000 80,000 120,000 200,000 200,000 120,000 80,000 60,000 30,000 10,000
Adjusted Curve123456789101112131415161718
Bell Curve??????????????????
Spend Pattern??????????????????

<colgroup><col><col span="4"><col span="2"><col><col><col span="10"></colgroup><tbody>

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Well-known Member
Sep 19, 2005
I don't know how to find the pattern exactly but here's a rough guess:

<b>Excel 2010</b><table cellpadding="2.5px" rules="all" style=";background-color: rgb(255,255,255);border: 1px solid;border-collapse: collapse; border-color: rgb(187,187,187)"><colgroup><col width="25px" style="background-color: rgb(218,231,245)" /><col /><col /><col /><col /><col /><col /><col /><col /><col /><col /><col /><col /><col /><col /><col /><col /><col /><col /><col /></colgroup><thead><tr style=" background-color: rgb(218,231,245);text-align: center;color: rgb(22,17,32)"><th></th><th>A</th><th>B</th><th>C</th><th>D</th><th>E</th><th>F</th><th>G</th><th>H</th><th>I</th><th>J</th><th>K</th><th>L</th><th>M</th><th>N</th><th>O</th><th>P</th><th>Q</th><th>R</th><th>S</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr ><td style="color: rgb(22,17,32);text-align: center;">6</td><td style=";">Known Curve</td><td style="text-align: right;;">1</td><td style="text-align: right;;">2</td><td style="text-align: right;;">3</td><td style="text-align: right;;">4</td><td style="text-align: right;;">5</td><td style="text-align: right;;">6</td><td style="text-align: right;;">7</td><td style="text-align: right;;">8</td><td style="text-align: right;;">9</td><td style="text-align: right;;">10</td><td style="text-align: right;;">11</td><td style="text-align: right;;">12</td><td style="text-align: right;;">13</td><td style="text-align: right;;">14</td><td style="text-align: right;;">15</td><td style="text-align: right;;">16</td><td style="text-align: right;;">17</td><td style="text-align: right;;">18</td></tr><tr ><td style="color: rgb(22,17,32);text-align: center;">7</td><td style=";">Bell Curve</td><td style="text-align: right;;">1.00%</td><td style="text-align: right;;">2.00%</td><td style="text-align: right;;">3.00%</td><td style="text-align: right;;">4.00%</td><td style="text-align: right;;">6.00%</td><td style="text-align: right;;">7.00%</td><td style="text-align: right;;">8.00%</td><td style="text-align: right;;">9.00%</td><td style="text-align: right;;">10.00%</td><td style="text-align: right;;">10.00%</td><td style="text-align: right;;">9.00%</td><td style="text-align: right;;">8.00%</td><td style="text-align: right;;">7.00%</td><td style="text-align: right;;">6.00%</td><td style="text-align: right;;">4.00%</td><td style="text-align: right;;">3.00%</td><td style="text-align: right;;">2.00%</td><td style="text-align: right;;">1.00%</td></tr><tr ><td style="color: rgb(22,17,32);text-align: center;">8</td><td style=";">Spend Pattern</td><td style="text-align: right;;">10,000</td><td style="text-align: right;;">20,000</td><td style="text-align: right;;">30,000</td><td style="text-align: right;;">40,000</td><td style="text-align: right;;">60,000</td><td style="text-align: right;;">70,000</td><td style="text-align: right;;">80,000</td><td style="text-align: right;;">90,000</td><td style="text-align: right;;">100,000</td><td style="text-align: right;;">100,000</td><td style="text-align: right;;">90,000</td><td style="text-align: right;;">80,000</td><td style="text-align: right;;">70,000</td><td style="text-align: right;;">60,000</td><td style="text-align: right;;">40,000</td><td style="text-align: right;;">30,000</td><td style="text-align: right;;">20,000</td><td style="text-align: right;;">10,000</td></tr></tbody></table><p style="width:8.8em;font-weight:bold;margin:0;padding:0.2em 0.6em 0.2em 0.5em;border: 1px solid rgb(187,187,187);border-top:none;text-align: center;background-color: rgb(218,231,245);color: rgb(22,17,32)">Sheet10 (3)</p><br /><br />

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