Need help with Sales Forecast

Abbey87

New Member
Joined
Apr 3, 2014
Messages
3
Hi There!

I was having trouble making an accurate sales forecast and was wondering if anyone could help me.

I have the monthly sales figures for the past 3 years. Readign them you can tell:

1) There is seasonality (Sales are high in Feb and Aug but low in other months)

2) Sales since September 2013 have been significantly down (not by a fixed % but still down overall)

3) The sales aren't linear (since 2010, some months have had more sales, some have had less, some both)

I tried making a forecast by using a weighted average of the previous years' monthly sales

E.G.

January 2013 - Sales = 100 (weighted .60)
January 2012 - Sales = 50 (weighted .30)
January 2011 - Sales = 25 (weighted .10)

However the problem with this is that it, as the sales figures didn't drop hugely until September, the forecast figures for Jan 2014 -Aug 2014 are skewed quite high compared to the actual sales of the past 6 months.

Does anyone know if it's posisble to adjust the weighted average so it takes into account the trend of lower sales that i'm experiencing?

Thanks,

Abbey87
 

Excel Facts

Move date out one month or year
Use =EDATE(A2,1) for one month later. Use EDATE(A2,12) for one year later.

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