Score Prediction in Excel


New Member
Nov 2, 2018

I was recommended to this forum by a friend who spoke very highly of it, so I hope I've landed in the right place!

I am looking to put together an excel sheet to predict the scores, win probability and cover probability of american football. I would like to do this for other sports as well once I have the base model made.

I have researched different way's to accomplish this and what I've found out is that Poisson Distribution would be the best way to determine total's. Once I've determined the totals of each team head to head, I can then determine the win probability as well as the probability to cover the spread.

Where I need some help is how to incorporate the data I have chosen into a Poisson Distribution model correctly.

Here is the data I've decided to use to determine the outcomes:

Home Field Advantage Tier
Strength of Schedule Rank
Offensive Point Per Game
Def Points Per Game (allowed)
League Average PPG
Offensive Yard Per Game
Defensive Yard Per Game
League Average YPG

Any help is apprecaited!! Thank you

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MrExcel MVP
May 7, 2008
Office Version
That would make you a comfy eight-figure income in Las Vegas and get you an invitation to a statistics post-doc at the University of Chicago. Hope you'll keep us posted on progress.


Board Regular
Apr 16, 2014
Unfortunately I cannot help you with Poisson distribution, but what you have described sounds like it may work with Regression Analysis using a Logit or Probit model.

Have you considered this?

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