Statistics question re: percentages!

[thorpyuk]

Hi all,

I was wondering if anyone could clarify something for me?!!

Having recently run a campaign, we had sales figures last year of 3,125,000

This year we forecasted 4,304,475 (a 37.7% increase)

We actually ended up with 3,682,408 (a 17.84% increase)

This means we are 19.9% down on forecast....

However, a differing way of looking at things could be saying if you uplift last year by 37.7%, you end up with 4,303,125. Compare this to my actual this year (3,682,408), means down 14.42%!

So which is the correct figure? -19.9% or -14.42% ?!

Thanks!

 

[pompey007]

Hi all,

I was wondering if anyone could clarify something for me?!!

Having recently run a campaign, we had sales figures last year of 3,125,000

This year we forecasted 4,304,475 (a 37.7% increase)

We actually ended up with 3,682,408 (a 17.84% increase)

This means we are 19.9% down on forecast....

However, a differing way of looking at things could be saying if you uplift last year by 37.7%, you end up with 4,303,125. Compare this to my actual this year (3,682,408), means down 14.42%!

So which is the correct figure? -19.9% or -14.42% ?!

Thanks!

It is confusing, but your sales are 622,067 down on forecast; which expressed as a % is -14.4%.

The 19.9 is not a percentage movement it is just 37.7 - 17.8!

 

[thorpyuk]

Correct, but are they both right?


For eg, say last year = £100, this year forecast = £150 (+50%)

If this years actual sales is £125, does that mean I am -25% from forecast, or -16.6%?

I'm confused :<

 

[scottylad2]

As a a forecaster, you'd forget the assumption you made in the first instance and qualify the actual increase you did make by pointing out the current Credit Crunch.....then lower your sights a little for next year....Both are right, just depends on what one you want to concentrate on

 

[pompey007]

In your example you want to express how much you are down from forecast. So you need to show as a denomination of £150. Therefore (150-125)= 25/150 = 16.67%.

The other result is using different denominators, you are not comparing apples with apples! You ask if you are 25% down on forecast, but that would be £150 - 25% = £112.50



This may help...or not!!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Percentages