Streak Calculator

[John Caines]

hello All.
I came across a very handy small calculator here ;
http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-tools/streak-calculator/

Basically it does this;
"Determines the probability of losing a streak of wagers over the course of a wager series of specified length." (That's what it says anyway).

So,, given the above;
Question;
If you placed 250 bets in 1 year, each losing with a probability of 30%, what is the likelihood of losing 5 or more bets in a row at some point during the year?
Question is; How is this calculated?
EXAMPLE:
=======
Cell A1: I enter 250 (Number of bets)
Cell B1: I enter 5 (Losing Streak Length)
Cell C1: I enter 30% (Probability of loss)
cell D1: Probability Streak % Answer????????????
Does anybody know how to create the formula to derive the answer from the above criteria?
the answer is apparently 34.452%

Amazing.
If anybody can work this out I would very grateful.
It is a very useful calculator.
Hope someone can fathom it out.
Many thanks
John Caines

 

[kraps2312]

hello All.
I came across a very handy small calculator here ;
http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-tools/streak-calculator/

The above calculator is close but not exact.
Most online streak calculators get close at high values of "n" and have a larger error rate at low values as the above one has.

Example: Series 20; Streak 5 and Prob 0.5 = 0.249870300292969
above calculator returns 24.712% Close, but it should be EXACT.

Try this calculator:HERE

Basically it does this;
"Determines the probability of losing a streak of wagers over the course of a wager series of specified length." (That's what it says anyway).

So,, given the above;
Question;
If you placed 250 bets in 1 year, each losing with a probability of 30%, what is the likelihood of losing 5 or more bets in a row at some point during the year?
Question is; How is this calculated?
EXAMPLE:
=======
Cell A1: I enter 250 (Number of bets)
Cell B1: I enter 5 (Losing Streak Length)
Cell C1: I enter 30% (Probability of loss)
cell D1: Probability Streak % Answer????????????
Does anybody know how to create the formula to derive the answer from the above criteria?
the answer is apparently 34.452%

Amazing.
If anybody can work this out I would very grateful.
It is a very useful calculator.
Hope someone can fathom it out.
Many thanks
John Caines

For you to calculate this in Excel visit: http://wizardofvegas.com/forum/questions-and-answers/math/4855-ask-the-wizard-correction/

There are 2 solutions for the recursive formulas as well as 1 for a transition matrix. There is a link to 2 downloadable Excel files also.
Enjoy