Combining first come first served with random selection from a waiting list.
Combining first come first served with random selection from a waiting list.
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Thread: Combining first come first served with random selection from a waiting list.

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    Default Combining first come first served with random selection from a waiting list.

     
    I'm part of an organisation that is altering the way it manages a waiting list, and we have decided we want a way of picking n people per year to join. However, we don't want this done on a first-come-first-served basis, nor do we want an entirely randomised selection, rather a combination of the two where the probability of being picked at random increases linearly with increasing time on the waiting list i.e. someone that has been on the waiting list for longer will be more likely to be picked than someone who has recently joined, though some chance remains for someone new to the waiting list to be picked. Any suggestions on how to model this in Excel?

    Fairly proficient user, so nothing off limits!

    Thanks in advance,
    Rory

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    Default Re: Combining first come first served with random selection from a waiting list.

    One extra bit of information (just to make it even more complicated!), we would like the chances of the person that has been on the waiting list the longest to be 5x as likely (or ideally p​ times, i.e. take the value from a cell) to be picked vs. the newest member.

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    Default Re: Combining first come first served with random selection from a waiting list.

    Hi @rorymacaskill1

    Left field, but there is research suggesting serving the last person in the queue first speeds up the process:

    https://qz.com/496525/danish-researc...-person-first/

    Cheers

    pvr928
    Work: Excel 2010 64 bit
    Home: Excel 2016 64 bit

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    Default Re: Combining first come first served with random selection from a waiting list.

    Hi @pvr928

    It is more of a theoretical problem than a real-life one, and is actually for use in a similar report that going to look into modelling the effects of how different 'selection processes' affect will diversity etc. in the organisation, when there is a distinct correlation for various reasons between the time people join the waiting list and their characteristics.

    I do appreciate the link though!

    Rory

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    Default Re: Combining first come first served with random selection from a waiting list.

    Perhaps:

    C3: =C2+IFERROR(((B2-MIN(B$2:B$5))*N+MAX(B$2:B$5)-B2)/(MAX(B$2:B$5)-MIN(B$2:B$5)),1)
    B8: =INDEX(A2:A5,MATCH(RAND(),C2:C5/C6)) Array entered

    ABCDE
    1Days waitingCumulative weightN5
    2Mary50
    3Martha101.00
    4Bill152.21
    5Bob1003.63
    68.63
    7
    8PickBob



    Last edited by StephenCrump; Mar 18th, 2018 at 09:43 PM.

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    Default Re: Combining first come first served with random selection from a waiting list.

      
    Quote Originally Posted by pvr928 View Post
    Left field, but there is research suggesting serving the last person in the queue first speeds up the process:
    After you madam. No, please, after you.

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