Forecasting Curve Distribution
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    Default Forecasting Curve Distribution

    Hello,

    I am working on a forecasting model and have run into some trouble when trying to extend the X-Axis of a 12-month Curve Distribution to a longer time frame. Given a distribution of 12 percentages (one for each month), how can I spread the 12 months or periods to say 18 months while maintaining the integrity of the curve.

    Example:

    Distribution Amount $1,000,000
    Known Curve 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
    Bell Curve 1.00% 3.00% 6.00% 8.00% 12.00% 20.00% 20.00% 12.00% 8.00% 6.00% 3.00% 1.00%
    Spend Pattern 10,000 30,000 60,000 80,000 120,000 200,000 200,000 120,000 80,000 60,000 30,000 10,000
    Adjusted Curve 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
    Bell Curve ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?
    Spend Pattern ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?

  2. #2
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    Default Re: Forecasting Curve Distribution

    I don't know how to find the pattern exactly but here's a rough guess:

    Excel 2010
    ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRS
    6Known Curve123456789101112131415161718
    7Bell Curve1.00%2.00%3.00%4.00%6.00%7.00%8.00%9.00%10.00%10.00%9.00%8.00%7.00%6.00%4.00%3.00%2.00%1.00%
    8Spend Pattern10,00020,00030,00040,00060,00070,00080,00090,000100,000100,00090,00080,00070,00060,00040,00030,00020,00010,000

    Sheet10 (3)




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