Score Prediction in Excel
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    Default Score Prediction in Excel

    Hello,

    I was recommended to this forum by a friend who spoke very highly of it, so I hope I've landed in the right place!

    I am looking to put together an excel sheet to predict the scores, win probability and cover probability of american football. I would like to do this for other sports as well once I have the base model made.

    I have researched different way's to accomplish this and what I've found out is that Poisson Distribution would be the best way to determine total's. Once I've determined the totals of each team head to head, I can then determine the win probability as well as the probability to cover the spread.

    Where I need some help is how to incorporate the data I have chosen into a Poisson Distribution model correctly.

    Here is the data I've decided to use to determine the outcomes:

    Home Field Advantage Tier
    Turnover
    Strength of Schedule Rank
    Offensive Point Per Game
    Def Points Per Game (allowed)
    League Average PPG
    Offensive Yard Per Game
    Defensive Yard Per Game
    League Average YPG

    Any help is apprecaited!! Thank you

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    MrExcel MVP shg's Avatar
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    Default Re: Score Prediction in Excel

    That would make you a comfy eight-figure income in Las Vegas and get you an invitation to a statistics post-doc at the University of Chicago. Hope you'll keep us posted on progress.

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    Default Re: Score Prediction in Excel

    Unfortunately I cannot help you with Poisson distribution, but what you have described sounds like it may work with Regression Analysis using a Logit or Probit model.

    Have you considered this?

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