Calculate the probability of each number in 3 columns

[bilbon]

Hi,

Is there anyone who can help me figure out the probability of each number on the different A-B-C so that it will be like the answer to the right.
Preferably with VBA.

Match	%	%	%		Probability % A	Probability % B	Probability % C		Number of Right	Probability % A	Probability % B	Probability % C
1	14	25	61		61	25	14		13	0,06	0,00	0,00
2	92	6	2		92	6	2		12	0,60	0,00	0,00
3	49	30	21		49	30	21		11	2,86	0,00	0,00
4	50	27	23		50	27	23		10	8,26	0,01	0,00
5	69	20	11		69	20	11		9	16,01	0,07	0,00
6	48	30	22		48	30	22		8	21,93	0,39	0,04
7	48	30	22		48	30	22		7	21,80	1,66	0,26
8	49	28	23		49	28	23		6	15,87	5,24	1,29
9	56	25	19		56	25	19		5	8,42	12,25	4,70
10	28	29	43		43	29	28		4	3,20	20,95	12,39
11	64	22	14		64	22	14		3	0,84	25,54	23,12
12	67	19	14		67	19	14		2	0,14	21,02	28,93
13	19	30	51		51	30	19		1	0,01	10,48	21,79
									0	0,00	2,39	7,47
										100%	100%	100%
										This is the correct answer

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</tbody>

 

[shg]

I believe that shg's algorithm reverses the order, Pr(k) should be Pr(13-k)

Don't think so, Eric. The probability of getting all 13 correct is the product of the probabilities, which is the 0.0564% shown at the bottom of my col K. No?

I'm a bit confused as to what the percentages represent though.

I would interpret it to mean, "If I bet on the most/mid/least likely outcome for each game, what's the probability of winning 0 to 13 of my bets?"

 

[Eric W]

Oops, sorry about the order. I now notice your numbers run from 0 to 13 down the column, whereas mine ran in the opposite order. So our results match.

Still confused about the percentages though. There's a stat often used in American football. Say team A plays teams B though N. Based on various criteria, someone predicts that A has a 75% chance of beating B, 66% chance of beating C, etc. Even though A might be favored in every game, the odds of winning every game are quite low, and this is a way of predicting the most likely number of wins for the season. Nevertheless, why 3 percentages for each game? Unless there are 3 sources providing estimates per game. And if that's the case, then sorting by high to low wouldn't make a lot of sense since the estimates would be based on different criteria/algorithms.

 

[shg]

My random assumption is that it represents 13 games on a given weekend, and each row is the probability or win/lose/draw for the home team.

 

[Eric W]

Ah, that makes more sense.

 

[bilbon]

Hi shg and Eric


Thanks for your suggestions which I will test both tomorrow.


The reason that I sort the odds from left to right is to get all the highest numbers in a column and then the second-highest in a column, and the smallest in a column.
But with your knowledge, you may not need any sorting but you could calculate it from
original located at the left and at the top of this thread.


We have a game where you have to predict the outcome of 13 matches and where we get odds on every game such as Leicester-Manchester C 7,95-5.15-1,38 these I count on to the percentage which becomes 12-19-69, and so on which 12 matches and these are the numbers I would figure out said nnolikheten for how many right things get on those 13 matches.

 

[bilbon]

Hi, shg and Eric


I will benefit from both proposals and they work very very well.
Many thanks to you that you took the time to help me.


/Bilbon

 

[Eric W]

Glad we could help. It turned out to be enlightening for me too.

 

[bilbon]

Hi shg


Would there be much change in your code to get 13 at the top and 0 at the bottom?

/Bilbon

 

[Kishan]

Hi, bilbon, Eric and shg </SPAN>

</SPAN>I am interested if any one cloud explains when % A, % B and % C is define that says which team is strong to bet on it (A B or C) then why does require the Probability % A Probability % B Probability % C. I really cannot follow up please need your help</SPAN></SPAN>

Thank you </SPAN></SPAN>

Regards,</SPAN></SPAN>
Kishan</SPAN></SPAN></SPAN></SPAN>

 

[bilbon]

Hi Kishan


I make an attempt to explain a little.
The game is to predict 1, X or 2 (winner, tie, away win) in 13 football matches,
I use it, among other things, to make a theoretical assessment of how the pros (those who set the odds) assess the weekly round.
Then there are many ways to limit the number of rows (totaling 1 594 323 rows) by setting filters to remove rows that you don't want to include in their system using these % numbers.
Just your own imagination that sets the limit.

/Bilbon