Can this Simulator be done by Excel?

S

scalpmaster

New Member
Joined
Oct 21, 2010
Messages
12
BreakThrough In Coin Toss System
<HR style="COLOR: #ffffff; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Hi all,

appreciate if anyone can create this excel spreadsheet simulation:

User input:

T= Total number of tosses, e.g. T=1000

W=Winning probability% of each toss e.g. 0.5 (= fair)

N = number of latest tosses without the occurrence of 2 consecutive Heads or Tails e.g, N=7

e.g, For bets on Heads (vice-versa for Tails),

If there is No occurrence of 2 Consecutive Heads within the last N=7 tosses, then on the next appearance of a Head (could be one or more tosses after N), place first bet 1 on the next toss on Heads.

If Heads appears on next toss, +1 is added to Balance Total(cycle ends), otherwise, 1 is subtracted.
If Tails subsequently continues to appear, do not place next bet until the next Head appears.

When that Heads appears, place bet 2 on the next toss on Heads.
If Heads appears on next toss, +2 is added to Balance Total(cycle ends), otherwise, 2 is subtracted.
If Tails subsequently continues to appear, do not place next bet until the next Head appears.

When that Heads appears, place bet 4 on the next toss on Heads.
If Heads appears on next toss, +4 is added to Balance Total, otherwise, 4 is subtracted.
CYCLE ENDs here regardless it is a win or loss.(Limited martingale)

Wait for the next Non-occurrence of 2 Consecutive Heads or Tails within the latest N=7draws to start the new cycle.

Plot Balance Total chart over T number of tosses.

Thanks,
Scalpmaster
<!-- / message -->
 

Excel Facts

VLOOKUP to Left?
Use =VLOOKUP(A2,CHOOSE({1,2},$Z$1:$Z$99,$Y$1:$Y$99),2,False) to lookup Y values to left of Z values.
Sort by date Sort by votes
I figure scalpmaster is the one taking the bets ... :biggrin: Edit, BTW that's a very interesting article in the link, Phil.
 
Last edited:
Upvote 0
(a) That is an interesting link, Phil. And (b) Xenou, I'll bet that it isn't a case where scalpmaster is taking bets but rather that his professor is trying to create an interesting and fun homework assignment.
 
Upvote 0
Why do you call this a "binary fallacy"? On the face of it, the "increasing" odds of getting two successes in a row, as the number of trials increase, is because the odds are determined by the higher number of trials.

This means --> the "odds of getting two successes in ten trials is XX".
This does not mean --> the "odds of getting two successes after 8 failures is XX".

Is that the fallacy?

Any two consecutive trials with fair coins have the same odds of a success, regardless of how many successes or failures preceded it. It seems the "martingale" system relies on increasing the size of the bet to cover earlier losses (but this is new stuff to me) - so it's not based on better chances of winning, but gambling for a bigger wins (to cover bigger losses). If you read the article from Phil, you've seen that a 20,000 prize offered for 6 years was not enough to find any such system that actually wins for the player - so we won't do it here. I'm not sure if I'll get around to creating a simulation ... maybe. About cross-posting: the point is that if the problem is solved/answered on another forum you are wasting my time and generosity if I am trying to answer it here. As a courtesy, it is important to advise members that "this problem is posted elsewhere" (i.e., please check to see if it's already been answered there before you invest time trying to solve this).
 
Upvote 0
xenou said:
About cross-posting: the point is that if the problem is solved/answered on another forum you are wasting my time and generosity if I am trying to answer it here. As a courtesy, it is important to advise members that "this problem is posted elsewhere" (i.e., please check to see if it's already been answered there before you invest time trying to solve this).
Click to expand...

Furthermore - if it does get solved, go to every thread on every board that you posted and post a link to the effect "SOLVED HERE".

Also, you can see that some moderators on some boards get quite indignant when you cross post and they'll ban an unrepentant cross poster fairly quickly. Here you might not get banned by a moderator. But there's a decent chance that most of the better forum members may start to ignore your posts.
 
Upvote 0
There's more insightful discussion here so I have requested to close the thread at the other forums.
Click to expand...

Did excelforum just get burned ... :rolleyes: Ouch. Well, we'll take it as a complement but of course present company participating at excelforums excluded!

I'll see if I can take a closer look and come up with anything short and snappy on this ... if I'm not too late. It reminds me of some of our posters here who are forever trying to beat lottery games in some obscure fashion. The maths is always fun, even if the payout fails to deliver.
 
Last edited:
Upvote 0
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

S
  • Question
can you help me in modifay this code for combining data in listbox on userform and calculate values amongst them?
Replies
3
Views
494
saftawy1
S
J
  • Question
How to: sum if only the most recent consecutive numbers in cells of same column appear.
Replies
5
Views
615
Josean
J
A
  • Question
First VBA Project - is there a better way to write this code?
Replies
0
Views
2K
akshay27
A
X
  • Question
Approach for evaluating a range with multiple conditions
Replies
0
Views
1K
XDee
X
D
  • Solved
Problem Pasting a Range of data into a Worksheet_Change
Replies
6
Views
629
Gokhan Aycan
Gokhan Aycan

Forum statistics

Threads
1,214,996
Messages
6,122,636
Members
449,092
Latest member
bsb1122

Share this page

We've detected that you are using an adblocker.

We have a great community of people providing Excel help here, but the hosting costs are enormous. You can help keep this site running by allowing ads on MrExcel.com.
Allow Ads at MrExcel

Which adblocker are you using?

Disable AdBlock

Follow these easy steps to disable AdBlock

1)Click on the icon in the browser’s toolbar.
2)Click on the icon in the browser’s toolbar.
2)Click on the "Pause on this site" option.
Go back

Disable AdBlock Plus

Follow these easy steps to disable AdBlock Plus

1)Click on the icon in the browser’s toolbar.
2)Click on the toggle to disable it for "mrexcel.com".
Go back

Disable uBlock Origin

Follow these easy steps to disable uBlock Origin

1)Click on the icon in the browser’s toolbar.
2)Click on the "Power" button.
3)Click on the "Refresh" button.
Go back

Disable uBlock

Follow these easy steps to disable uBlock

1)Click on the icon in the browser’s toolbar.
2)Click on the "Power" button.
3)Click on the "Refresh" button.
Go back
Back
Top