Monte Carlo Simulation

[sssb2000]

hi,
i'm stuck trying to do a monte carlo simulation on a VERY simple problem.
i have several different events with their start and end time, and i need to do a monte carlo simulation in order to predict future occurances of those events.

any suggestions of how to go about doing this? i'm new to excel. please be gentle.
here's a sample set of data that i have:

CRISIS RESPONSE 1-Dec-89 31-Jan-90
CRISIS RESPONSE 1-Aug-90 1-Jan-91
CRISIS RESPONSE 1-Jan-91 1-Mar-91
CRISIS RESPONSE 26-Feb-91 27-Feb-91
CRISIS RESPONSE 1-May-92 31-May-92
CRISIS RESPONSE 19-Sep-94 1-Apr-95
CRISIS RESPONSE 1-Oct-94 31-Dec-94
CRISIS RESPONSE 1-Nov-94 25-Mar-95
CRISIS RESPONSE 30-Jun-95 4-Jul-95
CRISIS RESPONSE 1-Aug-95 28-Feb-97
CRISIS RESPONSE 29-Aug-95 20-Sep-95
CRISIS RESPONSE 1-Aug-96 1-Oct-97
CRISIS RESPONSE 1-Sep-96 31-Jan-97
CRISIS RESPONSE 1-Mar-97 30-Jun-97
HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE 1-Jan-90 1-Dec-92
HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE 1-Jan-90 1-Jan-90
HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE 1-Jan-90 1-Jan-90
HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE 6-Feb-90 10-Feb-90
HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE 18-Apr-90 2-May-90
HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE 1-Jul-90 30-Jul-90
HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE 1-Aug-90 1-Aug-90
HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE 1-Aug-90 1-Aug-90
HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE 26-Nov-90 8-Dec-90
HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE 1-Dec-90 1-Dec-90
NO FLY ZONE 1-Aug-92 1-Oct-97
NO FLY ZONE 12-Apr-93 1-Oct-97
NO FLY ZONE 1-Jan-97 1-Oct-97
PK 1-Apr-82 1-Oct-97
PK 13-Sep-92 29-Sep-92
PK 1-May-93 14-May-93
PK 5-May-93 25-May-93

 

[NBVC]

Here are a couple of links to addin software that might help you....

http://www.riskamp.com/home?gclid=CJCOpPaAw4gCFSAGSAodCgcz_g

http://www.vanguardsw.com/decisionpro/jmc.htm

 

[sssb2000]

thanks NBVC....i have the first addin...i just don't know how to set up the problem....i have calculated the duration of each 'event'...but i'm unfamiliar with monte carlo sim that i can't set it up.

 

[NBVC]

Sorry,

I don't know about the Monte Carlo simulation.... I just did a quick search on the web for you to find those addins..

here are a couple that might help you understand the method if you don't know it...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monte_Carlo_method

http://www.chem.unl.edu/zeng/joy/mclab/mcintro.html

http://www.ualberta.ca/~cdeutsch/MCS-course.htm

http://www.vertex42.com/ExcelArticles/mc/index.html

here's a couple of sites that shows some sample Excel setups that you may be able to adapt...

http://www.projectsmart.co.uk/docs/monte_carlo_simulation.pdf

http://office.microsoft.com/en-us/excel/HA011118931033.aspx

Good Luck.

 

[sssb2000]

NBVC, thank you so much for your time. i really do appreciate it
have a great evening. thanks again.