Find out if the income of the Day 'X' will reach the goal

[Luthius]

An enterprise measures its daily production values, which are saved and the calculations are made ​​daily.

Company ABC has a monthly production target of 1200 pieces (anything). On the 10th of the month the cumulative production was 120 pieces or 10% of the target. How to find out as the accumulated value of a given day (can be any day), if the company will meet the target of 1200 pieces?

What function would I use?

Day data 'X'

Total Parts: 120
Average by day: 15
Standard deviation to the day: 3.29
Goal until end of month: 1200

Date	Production	Total
1	21	21
2	15	36
3	14	50
4	13	63
5	18	81
6	14	95
7	15	110
8	10	120
9		
10		
11		
12		
13		
14		
15		
16	
17	
18	
19	
20	
21	
22	
23	
24	
25	
26	
27	
28	
29	
30

 

[Luthius]

Date	Production		   Total
1	21		             21
2	15		             36
3	14		             50
4	13		             63
5	18		             81
6	14		             95
7	15		             110
8	10		             120
9			
10			
11			
12			
13			
14			
15			
16			
17			
18			
19			
20			
21			
22			
23			
24			
25			
26			
27			
28			
29			
30

Day:8
Average Until it day:15
DesvPad:3.295018
Goal until end of month:1200

 

[xenou]

Hi,

I'm sure there's many ways but one is to accumulate a "goal" amount for each day, and compare this to the actuals. Simplest, this is your total goal divided by the days of production per month. If you run 7 days a week, that may be calendar days, but if you run 5 or 6 days a week it's workdays.

SAMPLE WORKBOOK
md5sum (zip file): 6f31db78caed3f3aafc9553db988e91d
sha256sum (zip file): 69088f535346d3e353f4d38fbbe05db0deb1fd048447e9039a37eba96847de18

ξ

 

[Luthius]

I was thinking in statistics, I mean probability, something like Normal distribution.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normal_distribution

How do I do that?

 

[xenou]

Personally, I don't think a normal distribution is relevant in this situation. Maybe I don't understand what your after.