Forecast remainder of year based on actual and budget

[jangel1059]

I am 4 months into the year and want to project the remainder of the year based on the 4 months actuals but want a trend similar to budget. I want to be able to maintain the relationship between actual and budget from month to month since I already know some months will be less.
Any suggestions?

 

[sr12345]

It's definitely doable, but can quickly become complicated...

The first issue you need to address is how you will handle schedule variances. For example, if your current progress is less than planned, will you simply increase the amount of work for the remaining months (in order to meet the planned deadline), or will you delay the the finish?

Are your budget variances (difference between budget and actual at a point in time) due to one-off situations, or do you want to treat them as systemic. For the one-offs, you could simply offset the forecast line vertically from the budget by a fixed amount. For systemic, you would adjust the slope of the budget line in order to give you the forecast.

 

[jangel1059]

Thanks. I know the options but am looking for computational method. In the past I've done it using algebra, however, I thought there might be something like forecast or trend that might be more effective. So far I've not been able to get how to work the forecast equation. But that may not even be what I should use.