Need help understanding monte carlo results

[michaelsmith559]

Here is the article to reference:
https://www.projectsmart.co.uk/docs/monte-carlo-simulation.pdf

Here is some stuff put into excel:

Excel 2003
	A	B	C	D	E	F	G	H	I	J	K	L	M	N
11	Activity	A	B	C	D	E	F	Total	Average	73750		Percent	Error	Trials
12	Minimum	10000	15000	7500	4800	20000	5000	62300	Std Dev	9349	s	10%	7375	14
13	Maximum	20000	15000	12000	6200	25000	7000	85200	Error	73.75	e	9%	6637.5	18
14									Trials	144627	N	8%	5900	23
15												7%	5162.5	30
16												6%	4425	40
17												5%	3687.5	58
18												4%	2950	90
19												3%	2212.5	161
20												2%	1475	362
21												1%	737.5	1446
22												0.1%	73.75	144627
23												0.01%	7.375	14462680
24												0.001%	0.7375	1.45E+09
25												0.0001%	0.07375	1.45E+11
26												0.00001%	0.007375	1.45E+13
Sheet3

Cell Formulas
Range	Formula
M12	=L12*$J$11
M13	=L13*$J$11
M14	=L14*$J$11
M15	=L15*$J$11
M16	=L16*$J$11
M17	=L17*$J$11
M18	=L18*$J$11
M19	=L19*$J$11
M20	=L20*$J$11
M21	=L21*$J$11
M22	=L22*$J$11
M23	=L23*$J$11
M24	=L24*$J$11
M25	=L25*$J$11
M26	=L26*$J$11
N12	=ROUND(((3*$J$12)/M12)^2,0)
N13	=ROUND(((3*$J$12)/M13)^2,0)
N14	=ROUND(((3*$J$12)/M14)^2,0)
N15	=ROUND(((3*$J$12)/M15)^2,0)
N16	=ROUND(((3*$J$12)/M16)^2,0)
N17	=ROUND(((3*$J$12)/M17)^2,0)
N18	=ROUND(((3*$J$12)/M18)^2,0)
N19	=ROUND(((3*$J$12)/M19)^2,0)
N20	=ROUND(((3*$J$12)/M20)^2,0)
N21	=ROUND(((3*$J$12)/M21)^2,0)
N22	=ROUND(((3*$J$12)/M22)^2,0)
N23	=ROUND(((3*$J$12)/M23)^2,0)
N24	=ROUND(((3*$J$12)/M24)^2,0)
N25	=ROUND(((3*$J$12)/M25)^2,0)
N26	=ROUND(((3*$J$12)/M26)^2,0)
H12	=SUM(B12:G12)
H13	=SUM(B13:G13)
J11	=AVERAGE(H12:H13)
J12	=ROUND(STDEVP(H12:H13,AVERAGE(H12:H13)),0)
J13	=L22*$J$11
J14	=ROUND(((3*J12)/J13)^2,0)
L22	=0.001
L23	=0.0001
L24	=0.00001
L25	=0.000001
L26	=0.0000001

My question concerns interpreting the error. How would I interpret an error of 73.75? Is this the total error of the predicted average? Is it the error between the avg and median?
Another question, I notice the error decreases if you increase the trials. My next question is if you know the number of trials to run per simulation, how many simulations do you need to run?

Thanks for any help. Other questions may follow.

Mike

 

[michaelsmith559]

This part got cut off on the sheet above:

Excel 2003
	L	M	N
11	Percent	Error	Trials
12	10%	7375	14
13	9%	6637.5	18
14	8%	5900	23
15	7%	5162.5	30
16	6%	4425	40
17	5%	3687.5	58
18	4%	2950	90
19	3%	2212.5	161
20	2%	1475	362
21	1%	737.5	1446
22	0.1%	73.75	144627
23	0.01%	7.375	14462680
24	0.001%	0.7375	1.45E+09
25	0.0001%	0.07375	1.45E+11
26	0.00001%	0.007375	1.45E+13
Sheet3

Cell Formulas
Range	Formula
M12	=L12*$J$11
M13	=L13*$J$11
M14	=L14*$J$11
M15	=L15*$J$11
M16	=L16*$J$11
M17	=L17*$J$11
M18	=L18*$J$11
M19	=L19*$J$11
M20	=L20*$J$11
M21	=L21*$J$11
M22	=L22*$J$11
M23	=L23*$J$11
M24	=L24*$J$11
M25	=L25*$J$11
M26	=L26*$J$11
N12	=ROUND(((3*$J$12)/M12)^2,0)
N13	=ROUND(((3*$J$12)/M13)^2,0)
N14	=ROUND(((3*$J$12)/M14)^2,0)
N15	=ROUND(((3*$J$12)/M15)^2,0)
N16	=ROUND(((3*$J$12)/M16)^2,0)
N17	=ROUND(((3*$J$12)/M17)^2,0)
N18	=ROUND(((3*$J$12)/M18)^2,0)
N19	=ROUND(((3*$J$12)/M19)^2,0)
N20	=ROUND(((3*$J$12)/M20)^2,0)
N21	=ROUND(((3*$J$12)/M21)^2,0)
N22	=ROUND(((3*$J$12)/M22)^2,0)
N23	=ROUND(((3*$J$12)/M23)^2,0)
N24	=ROUND(((3*$J$12)/M24)^2,0)
N25	=ROUND(((3*$J$12)/M25)^2,0)
N26	=ROUND(((3*$J$12)/M26)^2,0)
L22	=0.001
L23	=0.0001
L24	=0.00001
L25	=0.000001
L26	=0.0000001

 

[michaelsmith559]

I also forgot to ask: the sheet referenced above and formulas are for a normal distribution. Is there a different formula used to calculate the number of trials needed for a different probability distribution?

Mike

 

[michaelsmith559]

Thanks for all who looked, but I have answered my own question.

Mike