Possible ways to estimate a figure ??

[Pauljj]

I suppose this is a bit of a statisticians question. I have a data that tells me how many people have made bookings with us every week this year. I also have the same for previous years. Our total is reaching 2 million, does anyone know the best way to estimate the date that is likley to be reached ?? I have used a basic method of minusing the total now from 2 million and basing it on the average this year but i guess there is a better method based on the trends from preious years etc etc

Would anyone have an idea ???


Thanks very much

 

[thorpyuk]

you could look at percentages each week, and work it out from that....


that's how i've had a go at estimating year end monthly sales....
eg, bookings at end of aug 2006 = 66% of total bookings 2006 full year
2007 jan-aug bookings are up say 10%, so increase each month by an additional 10% based on your monthly / weekly expectation. EG, sep works out at 10% of total years sales, increases to 11%....