sports betting hedging formula (beat the sports book)

ExxcelNoob

Board Regular
Joined
Apr 30, 2012
Messages
137
Hello everyone, I haven't post in MrExcel for a very long time and today I ran into a problem. I wanted to beat the sports book by hedging out my wager and maximize my profit regardless of the outcome of a game. Below are an example I ran into lately and I can't find a solution, please help me find the correct hedging number to beat the sports book.

Pregame Odd
Denver Nuggets Moneyline = 3.20
Los Angeles Lakers Moneyline = 1.42

I wager $1000 on Denver Nuggets pregame at odd 3.20 and I risk $1000 to win $2200. Later in the third quarter my sports book had a live wagering moneyline for the Lakers at 2.10 odd. I live hedge my bet at the moneyline 2.10 and risk $1000 to win $1100. However, my sports book only had $1000 max bet per time and after that the sports book immediately change the moneyline odd to 2.06 . How can I balance my net profit no matter the outcome of the game? This mean I have to live hedge two times because the moneyline odd changed every 5-10 seconds and the bet limit is only $1000 per time.

Below are the example I input into a spreadsheet and I want to solve for X (Live hedge bet #2) and if I can solve for X I can beat the sports book. What formula can I use to solve for X in cell B2?

ABCDE
1Live hedge bet # 2 (Lakers 2.06)Live hedge bet #1 + #2 (Lakers 2.10)Original Bet (Nuggets 3.20)Net Profit
2Stake533.981533.981000666.02
3Win566.021666.022200666.02

ABCDE
1Live hedge bet #2 (Lakers 2.06)Live hedge bet #1 + #2 (Lakers 2.10)Original Bet (Nuggets 3.20)Net Profit
2StakeX=1000+B21000=C3-D2
3Win=X*1.06=1100+B32200=D3-C2


For those that doesn't understand what is hedging in sports betting, please read an example below.

Source:

Hedging Formulas for sport betting

Prevent A Loss By Hedging

To win back your stake in a loss, divide your original stake by the price of the other side of the hedge and bet that amount.

Example:

You bet 100 on a futures bet with a price of 10.00, now you want to hedge out with the other side at a price of 1.60.

100/1.60 = 62.5

You should bet 62.5 on the other side. If your bet loses, you still win back your original stake, making the wager risk free.

Win The Maximum Amount By Hedging

To ensure you win the maximum amount on your hedge every time, use the following formula:

x = (p+b)/r

x = amount you should bet on hedge
p = the profit you stand to make on the first bet
b = the first wager you made
r = (decimal) price of the second wager

To calculate how much you stand to win, subtract the amount you placed on the hedge from the profit you stand to make on the first bet:

p – x = guaranteed return

Example:

You bet 100 on a futures bet with 10.00 odds, now you want to hedge out with the other side at 1.50 odds.

p = 900
b = 100
r = 1.5

x = (900+100)/(1.5)
x = 666.67

With this hedge you stand to make 900-666.67 = 233.33. That means you get 233.33 pure profit no matter what the outcome is!
 

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shg

MrExcel MVP
Joined
May 7, 2008
Messages
21,782
Office Version
  1. 2010
Platform
  1. Windows
There's a workbook with several examples of lay and dutch betting at Box
 

ExxcelNoob

Board Regular
Joined
Apr 30, 2012
Messages
137
thank you shg, I looked through the spreadsheet and I can't find a solution to solve for X .
 
Last edited:

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