Looking for "Out of the Box" Thinkers

[Sp3cial_k_1975]

Hello All,
This is Kody, aka Sp3cial K. I have recently joined MRExcel in hopes to find methods to creating passages through excel to better my thoughts that run through my head. Some may think I'm crazy, but I truly believe that with the thoughts of others and myself, that a simple game can be cracked, leading us all to making a lot of money.

As I look at life, I know, just as any other smart person knows, life revolves around numeric patterns. And what I have seen by joining this site is that there are a lot of smart people out there. So, What I have decided to do is to write this as an invite to those interested. The game I play is Keno, it can be found in most states that carry lotto, not just at casinos. Keno is a numbers game where you pick 1-10 numbers of 80. There are 20 numbers drawn and if your numbers match, then you win depending on what sequence of numbers you choose.

Now, I have played every sequence there is. Here in Missouri, The winnings are as follows:

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What I have found is your best chances to win, are simply picking two numbers. If two out of 20 numbers hit, you win 10/1 odds. So, what I am trying to find, is a formula in excel that we can use, to configure the next drawings to show us at least 2 numbers that will come in. This sounds easy I'm sure, I've been racking my brain trying different methods, count, sum, and even predict (which has slipped my mind of the formula name, but you take certain numbers in a row and it tells you what the next number should be) Anyway, Billions of people play the lottery, everyone is looking for that edge to make more money aside from their real-life job. I am looking for others interested in trying to devise a pattern or formula in excel that we can figure out the next drawing up to three drawings ahead. If interested, reply to this post, share the post and maybe with more minds then 1, we can find a solution.

Kody

 

[Atroxell]

I used to work for the company that runs the Lottery in most US States--including Missouri, unless they lost the contract.

I can assure you that the greatest effort in any Lottery goes into making the drawings as random as possible. Including using multiple computers/machines to choose the random numbers and rotating those computers/machines in and out of use on a random basis.

And the random functions used to generate the numbers are far more complex than the simple random() function in Excel.

If you can figure out a methodology of reliably predicting the number results of the drawings, you will not have to win because you will have well-valued employent consulting for the Lottery on what not to do--in the interest of keeping the results random.

 

[xenou]

I don't know the rules of Keno so I can't speak to the odds definitively, but I would calculate the odds of some number being chosen in four successive games to be over 50% - so in that sense there is always going to be a "hot" number. It's just that it could be any number, and you don't know which one. This has nothing to do with patterns - just the effects of randomness.


I.e.
in game one 4 numbers are chosen. There is a 100% chance of some number being among these four.
In game two-four 4 numbers are chosen. There is a 5% * 5% * 5% chance that one of the numbers from game one is repeated.

Therefore given some number chosen in the first game, there is a about a 50% chance that you'll see it four times in a row [1+(.05*3*4)]/4

Given this, I'm not surprised at some patterns of "hot numbers" being found with 3,4,5 and even 6 out of ten hits, merely from randomness.

I may be doing the odds wrong - shg might check me out on that. It seems like a poisson distribution except that if we arbitrarily choose the first four numbers as having "already" occurred, then there is 100% chance of success in the first game.

 

[Sp3cial_k_1975]

So, to most I'm wasting my time, and that's ok, it's only a waste of time if it doesn't work. But to not try seems to be more of a waste. I like xenou's thought, hot numbers do occur, and he's right. I've seen the number 8 draw 3 times in a row on the 8th ball. Strange as that seems, it's happened. The guy who worked for the lottery, you bring up some great information, numbers are randomized by different computers all circulating to one game. Maybe I'm a dreamer, but I'm trying.

 

[xenou]

I think my odds are wrong. That ought not be too hard though - i.e., what are the odds of any number being repeated 4 times in 10 games. And likewise, 5 reps and 6 reps ...

After that, another more interesting stat would be "given a run of three, what is the chance of the number hitting again in the next game (or the next three games, or the next 10 games)". But of course since we are starting from an already existing event this is going to be just the same odds of hitting that number in the next game (or the next 3 games, or the next 10 games).

I ran a simul and I can attest that three number runs (three or more hits of a number in 10 games) are very common - not hard to find at all.

Note that I also agree with Rick's point - adding that *if* anyone had a system that actually worked to make a lot of easy money on keno, they will definitely not be posting it here So unfortunately you can only converse with people who don't have that kind of a solution for you. Nevertheless, such games are often interesting for looking at probabilities.


Edit: Note, running my simul again a few more times it's about an 80% probability that *some* number will repeat at least three times in 10 games. It's about a 10% probability that *some* number will repeat four times in ten games. But I don't know how to demonstrate this mathematically. Still, it does show that it is not at all uncommon to find "streaks" of three in 10 game sets -- though certainly tough to predict which number would hit such a streak.

 

[shg]

The USPTO sez

With the exception of cases involving perpetual motion, a model is not ordinarily required by the Office to demonstrate the operability of a device.

That's because it has been proven by the laws of thermodynamics that no such invention is possible, and they don't want to waste their time.

I can understand a scheme that would attempt to exploit bent spindles and worn bearings on roulette wheels (where the house odds are a small fraction of those on lotteries). Don Quixote was trying; that ram was trying with that dam. There's a basic difference between attempting something difficult (e.g., head-butting a hole in a dam, proving Goldbach's conjecture), and attempting something well understood to be impossible.

Technicians run bewilderingly complex math models to try to predict the stock market. If you know one, ask what she thinks of predicting lotteries.

 

[Sp3cial_k_1975]

Note that I also agree with Rick's point - adding that *if* anyone had a system that actually worked to make a lot of easy money on keno, they will definitely not be posting it here So unfortunately you can only converse with people who don't have that kind of a solution for you. Nevertheless, such games are often interesting for looking at probabilities.


The thing is, I'm not trying to make millions.. Like I said, you pick 2 numbers to hit, you put $5.00 on those two numbers and put $5.00 on the multiplier it's paying out $50.00 to your $5.00 you put in plus whatever the multiplier may be (1x,2x,3x,4x,5x,10) So, in this aspect, we are not trying to bankrupt the lottery, we are trying to take a little at a time.

I play $5.00 increments with the $5.00 multiplier because at most, a single ticket will make you $500.00 (if hit with a 10x multiplier) and anything under $599.00 is un-taxable and can be cashed at any gas station.

 

[Sp3cial_k_1975]

Take the corner numbers in keno. (1, 10, 71 & 80)
In almost every draw, at least one of these numbers hit.

Out of 10 draws (90%)
Out of 20 draws (70%)
Out of 30 draws (70%)

So, nevermind, 70% is good but not great

 

[xenou]

Take the corner numbers in keno. (1, 10, 71 & 80)
In almost every draw, at least one of these numbers hit.

On what basis is this claim? I find this very hard to believe.


Note:

The thing is, I'm not trying to make millions.. Like I said, you pick 2 numbers to hit, you put $5.00 on those two numbers and put $5.00 on the multiplier it's paying out $50.00 to your $5.00 you put in plus whatever the multiplier may be (1x,2x,3x,4x,5x,10) So, in this aspect, we are not trying to bankrupt the lottery, we are trying to take a little at a time

Please don't be vague. How much does a multiplier cost and which one will you choose? You have to weigh the odds of winning against the cost of playing. One winning ticket is no good if it comes after 50 losing tickets at greater cost.

By the way, in Keno are numbers repeatable or not? I.e., can we play 80-80-80-80?

 

[Sp3cial_k_1975]

This is interesting... same 30 draws numbers (69,70, 79 & 80) also 70%

 

[Sp3cial_k_1975]

I corrected myself.. it's hit 70% in the draws I'm looking at..