Looking for "Out of the Box" Thinkers

[Sp3cial_k_1975]

Hello All,
This is Kody, aka Sp3cial K. I have recently joined MRExcel in hopes to find methods to creating passages through excel to better my thoughts that run through my head. Some may think I'm crazy, but I truly believe that with the thoughts of others and myself, that a simple game can be cracked, leading us all to making a lot of money.

As I look at life, I know, just as any other smart person knows, life revolves around numeric patterns. And what I have seen by joining this site is that there are a lot of smart people out there. So, What I have decided to do is to write this as an invite to those interested. The game I play is Keno, it can be found in most states that carry lotto, not just at casinos. Keno is a numbers game where you pick 1-10 numbers of 80. There are 20 numbers drawn and if your numbers match, then you win depending on what sequence of numbers you choose.

Now, I have played every sequence there is. Here in Missouri, The winnings are as follows:

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What I have found is your best chances to win, are simply picking two numbers. If two out of 20 numbers hit, you win 10/1 odds. So, what I am trying to find, is a formula in excel that we can use, to configure the next drawings to show us at least 2 numbers that will come in. This sounds easy I'm sure, I've been racking my brain trying different methods, count, sum, and even predict (which has slipped my mind of the formula name, but you take certain numbers in a row and it tells you what the next number should be) Anyway, Billions of people play the lottery, everyone is looking for that edge to make more money aside from their real-life job. I am looking for others interested in trying to devise a pattern or formula in excel that we can figure out the next drawing up to three drawings ahead. If interested, reply to this post, share the post and maybe with more minds then 1, we can find a solution.

Kody

 

[xenou]

I was trying to point out to you with my simul results that any set of drawings will exhibit patterns of some numbers being drawn more than others. That doesn't have predictive value for those numbers. There's a nice saying that "the problem with random numbers is that they don't seem random". That is to say that we "expect" random numbers to always look like they are different and that there aren't any numbers near each other that are the same. But a real random sample does exhibit such events as two numbers being picked in a row. This doesn't mean that a number is cold or hot, or that it's improbable or impossible or that the pick wasn't really random. The second number had the same chance of being picked as any other number, despite that it was just picked. In essence, assuming a fair game, the odds are *never* changed by what just happened in the previous pick(s). [Edit: in probabilistic terms, this is what we would call "independent trials", of which is what every lottery game is an example].

Going by a previous suggestion, perhaps the way to continue would be like this:

1) We have a set of "hot" numbers from analyzing these draws.
2) Now, take a sample of the next 10 games.
3) Project the winnings vs. costs if you make your bets on those numbers.
4) Repeat for a set number of trials ... (i.e., a year of such bettings, or two years of such bettings.)

The problem mathematicians will have is that the outcome is already known without going to all this trouble - the theoretical odds are known in advance, so all that remains is merely whether you get lucky or not (i.e. expected result is no better than what you can achieve betting any numbers you want for no particular reasons at all).

 

[Prense01]

Random is simply a label we have given to what we cannot predict. Quite simply, random is a result of y affected by x number of variables. Anything based on a computer executed algorithm is not random. Some believe that the concept of randomness does not exist at all...

Chris

 

[shg]

The concept of randomness is alive, well, and recognized. Computers use pseudorandom number generators because they serve their purpose, despite that they are not at all random.

Radioactive decay, quantum tunneling, and particle materialization from vacuum energy are random at the quantum level.

 

[oldbrewer]

but the numbers are already above average so they will now hit less than average to bring the long term frequency to its predicted level (tongue firmly in cheek)

 

[Prense01]

but the numbers are already above average so they will now hit less than average to bring the long term frequency to its predicted level (tongue firmly in cheek)

True in a normal distribution. As long as the result is determined by a DRBG, it carries some degree of predictability. Distribution characteristics is only one of many tests evaluated.

Chris

 

[oldbrewer]

what is a DRBG please?

 

[Prense01]

what is a DRBG please?

deterministic random bit generator

Chris

 

[oldbrewer]

thanks Chris, I once designed a random number generator with excel, it generated first of all 7 random numbers after randomly choosing a seed, then a series of loops were activated driven by those 7 numbers, after the last loop completed the time accurate to 4 decimal places was noted, with the number in the third decimal place becoming my first random number, I analysed millions of numbers and guess what there was always a hot number which varied with how many of the numbers you were analysing. Thus proving that there are always hot and cold numbers in a random pattern. The difficult thing was deciding if the number was still hot or going shy.....

 

[oldbrewer]

21 sets of 10000 random numbers created in the range 0 to 9

the smallest number of occurrences of a number was 7 = 928 in run 3

the highest number of occurrences in any run was 1 = 1055 in run 7

in all runs combined the coldest number was 5 with 20,403

in all runs combined the hottest number was 1 with 21,252

total numbers drawn was 21 x 10000 = 210000

the hottest numbers in each draw were

9-3-9-7-0-8-1-2-3-0-0-8-4-3-7-1-9-0-7-3-2

poor old 4 and 5 and 6 were never hottest

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[oldbrewer]

and remember 210,000 spins is a very small number - I could repeat with 2,100,000 spins or 21m or 210m

the hottest and coldest numbers would keep changing

at no time could I predict hot numbers or cold numbers