Hello all,
So here is the scenario:
I assume many of you have once in your life played the childhood card game war, where you deal one card for yourself and one for the opposing player and who ever has the highest card wins. Pretty simple right? This game is actually featured in some casinos to play for real money. You bet a certain amount and if you have a higher card than the dealer you win that amount you bet. It seems about 50/50 except for when you hit a tie. You both get the same card. In this case, the dealer burns three cards and then deals himself a card and then does the same for you. Again who ever gets the higher card wins. This lowers the probability of winning to slightly under 50% hence where the casino gets its advantage. Also, 6 decks are used which also affects your win probability.
So, what I am trying to do, is calculate the win/loss/tie results over a set number of hands. I am trying to use a strategy called negative progression, where every time you lose a hand, you double up to break even + your initial bet. So if your table minimum is $10, a losing streak would go: 10, 20, 40, 80, 160, 320, 640, 1280, 2560 etc... So i would have to put up $2560 to recover from 9 losing hands to break even and make $10. But my question is, what is the chance that you will hit that much of a losing streak? If the chances of hitting that bad of a run are slim enough, it might be worth giving this strategy a real go.
So I am trying to run a probability model over 100,000+ hands to calculate the highest number of consecutive losing streaks within that amount of hands. I am pretty sure you should be able to run a model like this in excel. I just don't know where to start. I am not sure though if this has to be done with a vba script of some sort, (i no nothing about this) or maybe with a formula? Any help would be greatly appreciated!
- Jeremy
So here is the scenario:
I assume many of you have once in your life played the childhood card game war, where you deal one card for yourself and one for the opposing player and who ever has the highest card wins. Pretty simple right? This game is actually featured in some casinos to play for real money. You bet a certain amount and if you have a higher card than the dealer you win that amount you bet. It seems about 50/50 except for when you hit a tie. You both get the same card. In this case, the dealer burns three cards and then deals himself a card and then does the same for you. Again who ever gets the higher card wins. This lowers the probability of winning to slightly under 50% hence where the casino gets its advantage. Also, 6 decks are used which also affects your win probability.
So, what I am trying to do, is calculate the win/loss/tie results over a set number of hands. I am trying to use a strategy called negative progression, where every time you lose a hand, you double up to break even + your initial bet. So if your table minimum is $10, a losing streak would go: 10, 20, 40, 80, 160, 320, 640, 1280, 2560 etc... So i would have to put up $2560 to recover from 9 losing hands to break even and make $10. But my question is, what is the chance that you will hit that much of a losing streak? If the chances of hitting that bad of a run are slim enough, it might be worth giving this strategy a real go.
So I am trying to run a probability model over 100,000+ hands to calculate the highest number of consecutive losing streaks within that amount of hands. I am pretty sure you should be able to run a model like this in excel. I just don't know where to start. I am not sure though if this has to be done with a vba script of some sort, (i no nothing about this) or maybe with a formula? Any help would be greatly appreciated!
- Jeremy
