Determine Next Number based on Previous Dice Rolls

[aggiemarine07]

Howdy everyone,

I have a general question for anyone who is smart in statistics. For a school project I am wanting to see if I can predict, with a probability percentage, what the next dice roll will be based on previous dice rolls. For example:

If with a give two set of dice I roll in this order a 4,7,12,3,5,4, and 2, what is the most likely number to be rolled next? Ideally I would like it broken down so that it shows the probability of each number between 2 and 12 to be rolled on the next dice roll.

I have experimented with the HYPGEOM.DIST formula but it is based on the fact that the previous number influences the next number and it is not that accurate until every number has been rolled once. I have also played around with the BINOM.DIST function but cant get it to work correctly.

Any help would be greatly appreciated. Thanks!

 

[mikerickson]

The probability of a dice coming to a particular total is not affected by previous rolls.

Many people have lost lots of money proving this.

 

[aggiemarine07]

thats what I thought. Each roll is independent of the roll previous to it so rolling a 2 has the same chance in the first roll as the second. Just wanted to see if anyone knew something different, thanks for the feedback!