How do I use Monte Carlo Simulation with this?

[maidenwarflower]

I have an issue, I'm pretty sure I need to use monte carlo simulation to help me find the results to this problem - but after googling it and reading everything about it, I'm still unsure how it works. There might be a simpler way in Excel, but I'm not finding it. The problem is as follows:

A decision-making team in your firm and is considering a $10 million expansion project. Estimates of key input factors are as following (all uniformly distributed):

Market size: 100,000 to 350,000 tons
Selling price: $375 to $575
Market growth rate: 0 to 6% per year
Market share: 3% to 17%
Total investment required: $7 million to $10.5 million
Useful life of the new facility: 5 to 15 years
Residual value of the facility: $3.5 million to $5 million
Operating costs: $320 to $550 per ton
Fixed costs: $250,000 to $375,000 per year

The team analyzes the investment risk associated with this investment project, selects the method/techniques that your team believes it is the best way to solve this problem (you can use any method/technique you learned from other courses such as accounting, marketing, economics, operations management, management science, finance, statistics, operations research, quantitative analysis, information systems, and computer science), creates a spreadsheet analysis model on Excel to solve this risk analysis problem.


Can somebody explain to me how to get started with these figures? Any help would be very very super extremely helpful!! Thank you sooo much!

 

[maidenwarflower]

bump

 

[shg]

You could do something like this:

<TABLE style="WIDTH: 395pt; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=524><COLGROUP><COL style="WIDTH: 37pt" width=49><COL style="WIDTH: 38pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2304" width=50><COL style="WIDTH: 39pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2377" width=52><COL style="WIDTH: 37pt" width=49><COL style="WIDTH: 40pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2413" width=53><COL style="WIDTH: 49pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2962" width=65><COL style="WIDTH: 37pt" width=49><COL style="WIDTH: 44pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2706" width=59><COL style="WIDTH: 37pt" span=2 width=49><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 12pt" height=16><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f3f3f3; WIDTH: 37pt; HEIGHT: 12pt; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl31 height=16 width=49>Min</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white; WIDTH: 38pt; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl32 width=50>100,000 </TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white; WIDTH: 39pt; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl32 width=52>375 </TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white; WIDTH: 37pt; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl33 width=49 align=right>0%</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white; WIDTH: 40pt; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl33 width=53 align=right>3%</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white; WIDTH: 49pt; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl32 width=65>7,000,000 </TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white; WIDTH: 37pt; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl32 width=49>5 </TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white; WIDTH: 44pt; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl32 width=59>3,500,000 </TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white; WIDTH: 37pt; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl32 width=49>320 </TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white; WIDTH: 37pt; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl32 width=49>25,000 </TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12pt" height=16><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f3f3f3; WIDTH: 37pt; HEIGHT: 12pt; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl31 height=16 width=49>Max</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl32>135,000 </TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl32>575 </TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl33 align=right>6%</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl33 align=right>17%</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl32>10,500,000 </TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl32>15 </TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl32>5,000,000 </TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl32>550 </TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl32>375,000 </TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12pt" height=16><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #909090; HEIGHT: 12pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8" height=16></TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #909090; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8"></TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #909090; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8"></TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #909090; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8"></TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #909090; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8"></TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #909090; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8"></TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #909090; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8"></TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #909090; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8"></TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #909090; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8"></TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #909090; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8"></TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 20.4pt" height=27><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #909090; HEIGHT: 20.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8" height=27></TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f3f3f3; WIDTH: 38pt; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl31 width=50>Market</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f3f3f3; WIDTH: 39pt; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl31 width=52>Price</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f3f3f3; WIDTH: 37pt; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl31 width=49>Growth</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f3f3f3; WIDTH: 40pt; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl31 width=53>Share</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f3f3f3; WIDTH: 49pt; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl31 width=65>Inestment</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f3f3f3; WIDTH: 37pt; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl31 width=49>Life</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f3f3f3; WIDTH: 44pt; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl31 width=59>Residual</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f3f3f3; WIDTH: 37pt; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl31 width=49>Var Cost</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f3f3f3; WIDTH: 37pt; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl31 width=49>Fixed Cost</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12pt" height=16><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #909090; HEIGHT: 12pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8" height=16></TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e7e7e7; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl34>123,547 </TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e7e7e7; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl34>562 </TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e7e7e7; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl35 align=right>5.7%</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e7e7e7; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl35 align=right>12.8%</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e7e7e7; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl34>8,975,650 </TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e7e7e7; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl36>8.5 </TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e7e7e7; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl34>4,206,560 </TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e7e7e7; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl36>475.0 </TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e7e7e7; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl34>33,537 </TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12pt" height=16><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #909090; HEIGHT: 12pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8" height=16></TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e7e7e7; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl34>110,583 </TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e7e7e7; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl34>504 </TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e7e7e7; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl35 align=right>3.2%</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e7e7e7; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl35 align=right>11.9%</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e7e7e7; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl34>9,914,596 </TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e7e7e7; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl36>12.9 </TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e7e7e7; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl34>4,600,349 </TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e7e7e7; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl36>458.2 </TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e7e7e7; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl34>319,760 </TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12pt" height=16><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #909090; HEIGHT: 12pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8" height=16></TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e7e7e7; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl34>108,939 </TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e7e7e7; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl34>442 </TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e7e7e7; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl35 align=right>1.4%</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e7e7e7; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl35 align=right>11.7%</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e7e7e7; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl34>7,482,502 </TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e7e7e7; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl36>13.4 </TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e7e7e7; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl34>3,759,539 </TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e7e7e7; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl36>378.7 </TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e7e7e7; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl34>339,722 </TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12pt" height=16><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #909090; HEIGHT: 12pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8" height=16></TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e7e7e7; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl34>133,916 </TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e7e7e7; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl34>425 </TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e7e7e7; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl35 align=right>2.4%</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e7e7e7; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl35 align=right>6.1%</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e7e7e7; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl34>8,019,317 </TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e7e7e7; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl36>10.3 </TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e7e7e7; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl34>3,716,667 </TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e7e7e7; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl36>320.4 </TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e7e7e7; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl34>31,840 </TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12pt" height=16><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #909090; HEIGHT: 12pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8" height=16></TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e7e7e7; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl34>101,468 </TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e7e7e7; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl34>473 </TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e7e7e7; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl35 align=right>0.5%</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e7e7e7; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl35 align=right>12.5%</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e7e7e7; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl34>10,093,908 </TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e7e7e7; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl36>14.6 </TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e7e7e7; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl34>3,772,445 </TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e7e7e7; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl36>375.8 </TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e7e7e7; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl34>344,435 </TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12pt" height=16><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #909090; HEIGHT: 12pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8" height=16></TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e7e7e7; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl34>134,047 </TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e7e7e7; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl34>505 </TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e7e7e7; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl35 align=right>5.3%</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e7e7e7; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl35 align=right>15.3%</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e7e7e7; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl34>8,104,013 </TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e7e7e7; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl36>11.3 </TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e7e7e7; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl34>4,832,091 </TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e7e7e7; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl36>413.8 </TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e7e7e7; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl34>232,643 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

The formula in B5 and copied across and then down a few thousand rows is

=B$1+RAND()*(B$2-B$1)


Then you need some evaluation function for each case.

 

[maidenwarflower]

Thank you so much for the help, I was doing something very similar to what you have there by using the RAND() function.

What type of evaluation function should be used to come up with some statistics if this venture is worth while or not? Should I be doing an average of these numbers (I know they change each time Excel opens or I hit F9), or should I be looking for standard deviations? What kind of function do you suggest?

 

[shg]

You could certainly average the values, but you know that result for a large number of samples a priori: it's about the midpoint of the max and min.

Whether a given result is quantitatively good, bad, or in between is a finance question I can't answer. But after you figure that out and add a column to calculate it, you could convert the random formulas to values, then sort by the 'goodness' criteria to estimate the probability of various outcomes.

The likelihood that all those variables are actually independent and have uniform distribution (versus correlated and, say, log-normal distributed) seems ... unlikely.

 

[maidenwarflower]

Thank you so much, that makes sense. I appreciate the help getting my started on this!

 

[shg]

You're welcome, good luck.