S Curve

[kkq5297]

Hi, I am in construction and need to create a production S Curve. Using 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,9,8,7,6,5,4,3,2,1 and charting the cumulative creates an S Curve, no problem. I even figured out that if you know the total, you can use the square root to find the middle number, in this case 10. The problem is that when you add in a set number of days (in my case) it doesn't work. In my case, I have a start date, end date, set duration (days) and total quantity. If I divide the total quantity by the days the result is 4,896 but charted that creates a flat line. In construction, we plan to get a slow start, ramp it up in the middle and then towards the end things slow down again as you finish....an elongated wide S curve... How do I create this with the three inputs...start, finish and total quantity? Thank you!

Start	03/07/17
Finish	06/21/19
Duration	121
Quantity	592,384
SqFt/Day	4,896

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[Tetra201]

For the sake of clarity, let's assume you have only two inputs: duration (cell B3) and quantity (cell B4). Let’s further assume that duration is always an integer number.

- Starting with cell D1, enter your up-and-down sequence. For example, for the duration of 121, it will be 1-->61-->1; for the duration of 122, it will be 1-->61,61-->1. You can also use the following formula to create the sequence:
=MAX(0,ROWS($A$1:$A1)-(ROWS($A$1:$A1)>ROUNDUP($B$3/2,0))*(ROWS(INDEX(A:A,ROWS($A$1:$A1)):INDEX(A:A,ROUNDUP($B$3/2,0)+1))*2-ISEVEN($B$3)))

- In cell E1, enter =D1*$B$4/(ROUNDUP($B$3/2,0)^2+ROUNDUP($B$3/2,0)*ISEVEN($B$3)) and drag-copy down as needed.

- In cell F1, enter =SUM(E$1:E1) and drag-copy down as needed.

- Now plot your datapoints in column F to get the elongated wide S-curve.

 

[shg]

The Beta polynomial that NASA uses for forecasting project spend curves is shown in the workbook at https://app.box.com/shared/ipkvdyc4bt