Trend formula completely wrong

Beleriand_K

New Member
Joined
Jul 3, 2019
Messages
8
When I enter the following data into Excel and generates af Forecast Analysis with a Polynomial Trendline (Order 2) Excel shows an almost perfect trendline in the diagram. But when I choose Display equation on chart, it comes up with a Trend formula that has nothing to do with reality.

This is Excels Trendline formula:

Y = -0,0044x^2+0,6225x+13,408

If I put three of the numbers above into this formula, the results are this:

80 => 35,048 (real result in table: 13,88)
100 => 31,658 (real result in table: 24,53)
120 => 24,748 (real result in table: 31,63)

Apart from being very different from the results in the table, the Y-values gets smaller in the Trend formula, while they get bigger in the input table. So there seems to something fundamentally wrong with the equation.

I have searched the internet for an explanation, but without succes. The only answer I have found is, that I should use more decimals, but I have tried to extend the number of decimals to 30, and it doesn't help.

I suppose Excel is working as it should, so it must be me doing something wrong. Can anyone figure out, what it is? Because I surely can't.




8013,88
8114,54
8215,18
8315,80
8416,41
8517,01
8617,59
8718,16
8818,72
8919,29
9019,79
9120,31
9220,82
9321,32
9421,81
9522,29
9622,75
9723,21
9823,66
9924,10
10024,53
10124,95
10225,36
10325,77
10426,17
10526,56
10626,94
10727,31
10824,68
10928,04
11028,40
11128,75
11229,09
11329,43
11429,76
11530,08
11630,40
11730,72
11831,03
11931,33
12031,63

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Excel Facts

What do {} around a formula in the formula bar mean?
{Formula} means the formula was entered using Ctrl+Shift+Enter signifying an old-style array formula.

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