Hello,
I'm trying to predict the dollar amount of new loans that my office will book over the next year. I have 10 years of historical data to build from.
I started with a trendline forecast which shows what I already know, we're growing positively. Unfortunately, it doesn't accurately predict the dollar amount I can estimate to book in the future. The difficulty is that our loan growth fluctuates so greatly sometimes. For example, our 3rd quarter loan growth is typically 200% greater than the rest of the quarters. This makes the standard trendline forecast very inaccurate.
Is there a formula that will account for these variable changes and help make these predictions more accurate.
I'd appreciate any help offered.
I'm trying to predict the dollar amount of new loans that my office will book over the next year. I have 10 years of historical data to build from.
I started with a trendline forecast which shows what I already know, we're growing positively. Unfortunately, it doesn't accurately predict the dollar amount I can estimate to book in the future. The difficulty is that our loan growth fluctuates so greatly sometimes. For example, our 3rd quarter loan growth is typically 200% greater than the rest of the quarters. This makes the standard trendline forecast very inaccurate.
Is there a formula that will account for these variable changes and help make these predictions more accurate.
I'd appreciate any help offered.
